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Just Released: Viewpoint 2024 Jan 9, 2024

Just Released: Viewpoint 2024

Integra’s Annual Viewpoint Commercial Real Estate Trends Report Unveils A Mixed Outlook Amidst Rising Interest Rates
31st Edition Examines Evolving Economic Landscape and Key U.S. Property Sectors, Plus Specialty Reports on Senior Housing, Affordable Housing, NNN Properties and Golf Courses

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DENVER, CO — (Jan. 9, 2024) — In a year marked by a complex mix of economic and real estate challenges, commercial real estate professionals face the critical task of navigating a landscape reshaped by shifting trends. Integra Realty Resources’ (IRR) newly released Viewpoint 2024 offers a comprehensive analysis of these shifts, aiming to clarify the clouded market perspectives with data-driven insights.

The question for 2024 remains complex and multifaceted: How will the commercial real estate market adapt to the ongoing economic changes, including the uncertainty around borrowing costs and risk-adjusted equity yield? "Despite the current market downturn, we see significant opportunities emerging from these market adjustments," says Anthony M. Graziano, CEO of Integra Realty Resources. "2024 will be a year where disciplined and well-informed investment strategies will shine."

IRR’s team of nearly 600 valuation advisors throughout the U.S. and Caribbean is continuously monitoring the economy and real estate market. The 31st edition of the annual Viewpoint report dissects key economic conditions and secular trends likely to impact property performance and valuations in the coming year. “Our aim is to offer insights that help our clients navigate the evolving market dynamics,” adds Graziano.

Produced in collaboration with esteemed economist Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Viewpoint 2024 reflects on the U.S. economy's resilience in the face of diverse challenges. “While the economy shows signs of stability, the real estate market encounters various pressures, including a slowdown in labor and housing markets. Investors should approach 2024 with a balanced perspective, considering both the risks and potential in different real estate sectors,” Kelly advises.

IRR Viewpoint 2024 Highlights

National Themes

The Economy: Despite multiple headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, the U.S. economy shows remarkable endurance. Real GDP growth remains steady, though cautious optimism is warranted given the uncertain global economic climate.

Employment: The employment landscape reflects resilience but also faces hurdles such as strikes and shifting workforce dynamics. The real estate sector feels these impacts, particularly in office space demand and multifamily market shifts.

Interest Rates and Inflation: With the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates to curb inflation, the real estate sector faces a challenging borrowing environment. This scenario necessitates strategic adjustments in investment approaches and will likely slow the new development pipeline into 2024.

U.S Property Markets


  • The past year has seen office buildings across diverse markets, including Austin, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington DC, experiencing significant value declines, with some areas witnessing more than 20% Y-o-Y declines.
  • According to IRR’s report, nearly 63% of office markets are now in recession, highlighting a widespread downturn in the sector.
  • The concepts of “urban doom loop” and “office apocalypse” mentioned in the report point to a significant shift in urban office markets, with suburban areas potentially offering more resilience.
  • COVID-19’s impact on the office sector continues, including the extensive adoption of work-from-home policies and their influence on office space demand.
  • Despite the current downturn, IRR’s report suggests the possibility of improvement in office markets over the coming years.


  • Only 13% of markets are in recession, but a significant percentage (63%) are in hypersupply, mainly due to rapid capital deployment in 2021-2022, indicating a potential imbalance of supply and demand.
  • Multifamily housing starts are reaching decades-long highs, with projections of 1.5 million units delivered by 2025. This high rate of new unit delivery, especially in markets like Austin, Nashville, and Charlotte, is outpacing sustainable demand trends.
  • In many of these high-supply markets, the rent-to-income ratio is already above 30%, posing affordability challenges, especially in Sunbelt metros that have traditionally boasted cost advantages.
  • Multifamily operators, particularly in the South and West, are facing double-digit increases in operating expenses, with factors like soaring insurance costs in climate-affected areas putting additional pressure on the bottom line.
  • Given these challenges, the multifamily market in 2024 is poised for a complex year, with potential adjustments in cap rates and transaction volumes as the market responds to the interplay of increased supply, affordability issues, and unexpected operational costs.


  • The retail sector is showing resilience with only 24% of markets in recession and 13% in the hyper-supply category. This indicates a positive shift, with a substantial number (36%) of markets in the recovery phase and 27% in expansion.
  • There's a focused intensification on sectors demonstrating sales growth, such as restaurants, bars, groceries, and health product stores. This trend suggests a strategic shift in tenancy to align with consumer demand.
  • After the initial surge, the growth curve of e-commerce appears to be flattening, indicating a maturing industry. This shift may suggest a more balanced competition between online and brick-and-mortar retail.
  • Occupancy rates in the retail sector have remained stable over the past year, with community and neighborhood retail properties showing consistent vacancy rates. This stability, coupled with rising market rents, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the sector.
  • Retail still faces financial pressures, evidenced by the highest delinquency rate in CMBS assets, but the trends in market rent and vacancy rates might support more favorable conditions. Investors and operators in the retail sector will need to navigate these mixed signals carefully in 2024.


  • Although the industrial real estate sector remains in a relatively strong position, it's facing challenges, with total returns year-over-year for industrials at a negative 5.3%. This indicates a less robust environment compared to previous years, yet still outperforming other commercial property types.
  • There are recorded increases in industrial cap rates and discount rates across various regions, reflecting a cautious approach by investors due to economic uncertainties and the shifting market dynamics.
  • Vacancy rates are on the rise in all regions, signaling a slight cooling in the market. However, market rents are also increasing, suggesting that demand for industrial space remains healthy.
  • The U.S. economy's overall growth, particularly in personal consumption expenditures on goods, is fueling demand for industrial space, indicating a strong correlation between the broader economy and the industrial sector's health.
  • The industrial sector is entering a phase of readjustment in 2024, balancing the effects of economic slowdown with the strong fundamentals of user demand. Investors and operators in this sector will need to navigate these mixed signals, with a focus on adapting to the changing market conditions.


  • The hospitality industry continues its recovery from the pandemic’s negative effects, but faces new challenges such as a slowing economy, reduced discretionary spending, and rising labor and operational costs, which are affecting the sector’s momentum.
  • There has been an approximate6% increase in U.S. average Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) over the past year, largely driven by Average Daily Rates (ADR). However, this growth comes amidst economic uncertainties, including the possibility of a recession and ongoing inflation, which may impact future industry performance.
  • Recent trends indicate a shift in demand, with increases in weekday travel offset by a decrease in weekend stays. This suggests a resurgence in business and group travel, which had lagged behind leisure travel in the post-pandemic recovery phase.
  • While RevPAR is trending positively, the broader outlook for the hospitality industry remains cautious. Macroeconomic factors such as potential recession risks and inflation are likely to influence the industry's ability to maintain stable occupancy and ADR levels.
  • The top 25 markets in the U.S. have shown year-over-year ADR increases of over 10%. However, the performance varies significantly across different markets, with some experiencing more robust growth than others.

Specialty Property Reports

  • Healthcare & Senior Housing: This sector is navigating a post-pandemic recovery, with improved occupancy rates and workforce stabilization. However, it faces challenges from higher interest rates, impacting construction costs and sales activity. The upcoming phasing out of federal Medicaid funding enhancements and proposed minimum staffing standards for skilled nursing facilities could further influence operational dynamics.
  • Affordable Housing: The affordable housing sector is grappling with significant undersupply and rising development costs. The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program remains pivotal in addressing this shortage, but economic trends since 2020 and recent interest rate hikes have complicated development efforts. The sector also faces the potential conversion of existing affordable units to market-rate housing as LIHTC compliance periods expire.
  • NNN Properties: In a volatile market environment, the relationship between corporate bond yields and net lease capitalization rates for properties secured by credit tenants is crucial. Investors are keenly observing the impacts of rising interest rates and their effect on cap rates, with a focus on adjusting for yield effectively based on lease term, credit rating, and real estate-specific factors.
  • Golf Courses: The golf industry has seen a surprising rebound over the past three years, with increased rounds played and robust participation in both on-course and off-course activities. Despite economic challenges, investor interest in golf properties is growing, driven by positive fundamentals and limited inventory, though the industry is mindful of the challenges in securing debt in the current economic landscape.

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Locate an Office

Each IRR office is led by an MAI-designated Senior Managing Director, industry leaders who have over 25 years, on average, of commercial real estate experience in their local markets.
Integra Offices Map Denver, CO Denver, CO 575 Union Blvd.
Suite 209
Lakewood, CO 80228
Phone: 720-833-5930
Fax: 303-951-1924
Boston, MA Boston, MA
Boston, MA 02210
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Seattle, WA Seattle, WA 600 University Street
Suite 310
Seattle, WA 98101
Phone: 206-436-1179
Fax: 206-623-5731
Portland, OR Portland, OR
Portland, OR 97205
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Boise, ID Boise, ID 1031 E. Park Boulevard
Boise, ID 83712
Phone: 208-342-2500
Fax: 208-342-2220
Salt Lake City, UT Salt Lake City, UT 5107 South 900 East
Suite 200
Salt Lake City, UT 84117
Phone: 801-263-9700
Fax: 801-263-9709
Las Vegas, NV Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas, NV 89147
Phone: 702-869-0442
Fax: 646-424-1869
Phoenix, AZ Phoenix, AZ 2999 N. 44th Street
Suite 512
Phoenix, AZ 85018
Phone: 602-266-5599
Fax: 602-266-1515
Sacramento, CA Sacramento, CA 590 Menlo Drive
Suite 1
Rocklin, CA 95765
Phone: 916-435-3883
Fax: 916-435-4774
San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA 555 Meridian Avenue
Suite C
San Jose, CA 95126
Phone: 408-299-0444
Fax: 408-299-0449
Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA 12100 Wilshire Blvd
Suite 800
Los Angeles, CA 90025
Phone: 213-984-4425
Fax: 916-435-4774
Orange County, CA Orange County, CA 4695 MacArthur Court
Suite 11
Newport Beach, CA 92660
Phone: 949-459-3717
Fax: 916-435-4774
San Diego, CA San Diego, CA 527 Encinitas Blvd.
Suite 204
Encinitas, CA 92024
Phone: 858-259-4900
Fax: 858-259-4910
Miami, FL Miami, FL 9155 S. Dadeland Boulevard
Suite 1208
Miami, FL 33156
Phone: 305-670-0001
Fax: 305-670-2276
Naples, FL Naples, FL 2770 Horseshoe Drive S
Suite 3
Naples, FL 34104
Phone: 239-643-6888
Fax: 239-643-6871
Tampa, FL Tampa, FL 550 North Reo Street
Suite 220
Tampa, FL 33609
Phone: 813-287-1000
Fax: 813-281-0681
Orlando, FL Orlando, FL 326 North Magnolia Avenue
Orlando, FL 32801-2431
Phone: 407-843-3377
Fax: 407-841-3823
Jacksonville, FL Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL 32217
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Charleston, SC Charleston, SC 11-C Isabella Street
Charleston, SC 29403
Phone: 843-718-2125
Fax: 843-718-2058
Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA 5085 Peachtree Road
Atlanta, GA 30341
Phone: 404-924-6247
Fax: 404-418-4357
Birmingham, AL Birmingham, AL 880 Montclair Road
Suite 275
Birmingham, AL 35213
Phone: 205-949-5995
Fax: 205-271-2389
Jackson, MS Jackson, MS 617 Renaissance Way
Suite 100
Ridgeland, MS 39157
Phone: 901-356-4934
Fax: 646-424-1869
Dallas, TX Dallas, TX 1100 Mira Vista Blvd.
Suite 300
Plano, TX 75093
Phone: 972-881-7191
Fax: 972-733-1403
Fort Worth, TX Fort Worth, TX 7080 Camp Bowie Boulevard
Fort Worth, TX 76116
Phone: 817-763-8000
Austin, TX Austin, TX 100 Congress Avenue
Suite 2000
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-924-1345
Memphis, TN Memphis, TN
Memphis, TN 38120
Phone: 901-356-4934
Fax: 646-424-1869
Oklahoma City, OK Oklahoma City, OK 13913 Technology Drive
Suite A1
Oklahoma City, OK 73134
Phone: 405-422-0718
Kansas City, MO Kansas City, MO 104 West 9th Street
Suite 400B
Kansas City, MO 64105
Phone: 816-652-0222
Fax: 636-530-0046
Providence, RI Providence, RI 2 Charles Street
Suite B1
Providence, RI 02904
Phone: 401-273-7710
Fax: 401-273-7410
Syracuse, NY Syracuse, NY 812 State Fair Blvd.
Suite 1
Syracuse, NY 13209
Phone: 315-422-5577
Fax: 315-422-5295
Hartford, CT Hartford, CT 386 Main Street
Middletown, CT 06457
Phone: 860-291-8997
Fax: 401-273-7410
New York, NY New York, NY
New York, NY 10036
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Northern New Jersey Northern New Jersey 25A Vreeland Road
Suite 100
Florham Park, NJ 07932
Phone: 973-422-9800
Fax: 973-422-9797
Coastal New Jersey Coastal New Jersey 1415 Hooper Ave.
Suite 306
Toms River, NJ 08753
Phone: 732-244-7000
Fax: 732-505-9498
Philadelphia, PA Philadelphia, PA 1515 Market Street
Suite 800
Philadelphia, PA 19102
Phone: 610-238-0238
Wilmington, DE Wilmington, DE IRR-Corporate
Wilmington, DE 19805
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Baltimore, MD Baltimore, MD
Washington, DC 20003
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Washington, DC Washington, DC
Washington, DC 20003
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Pittsburgh, PA Pittsburgh, PA 3535 Boulevard of the Allies
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Phone: 412-683-2211
Fax: 412-683-2220
Cleveland, OH Cleveland, OH 22730 Fairview Center Drive
Suite 210
Fairview Park, OH 44126
Phone: 330-659-3640
Fax: 330-659-3640
Columbus, OH Columbus, OH 6233 Riverside Drive
Suite 2N
Dublin, OH 43017
Phone: 614-764-8040
Fax: 614-764-8050
Saint Louis, MO Saint Louis, MO 215 Chesterfield Business Parkway
Suite B
Chesterfield, MO 63005
Phone: 636-898-6533
Fax: 636-530-0046
Chicago, IL Chicago, IL 1 N Franklin St
Suite 3340
Chicago, IL 60606
Phone: 312-565-0977
Fax: 312-565-3436
Minneapolis, MN Minneapolis, MN 7301 Ohms Lane
Suite 190
Minneapolis, MN 55439
Phone: 612-339-7700
Fax: 612-339-7937
Nashville, TN Nashville, TN 1894 General George Patton Drive
Suite 300
Franklin, TN 37067
Phone: 615-628-8275
Fax: 615-628-8286
Richmond, VA Richmond, VA 1805 Chantilly Street
Richmond, VA 23230
Phone: 804-346-2600
Fax: 804-747-9140
Greensboro, NC Greensboro, NC 5411-A Friendly Avenue
Greensboro, NC 27410
Phone: 336-676-6033
Fax: 336-676-6025
Raleigh, NC Raleigh, NC 8382 Six Forks Road
Suite 200
Raleigh, NC 27615
Phone: 919-847-1717
Fax: 919-847-1714
Charlotte, NC Charlotte, NC 214 W. Tremont Ave.
Suite 200
Charlotte, NC 28203
Phone: 704-376-0295
Fax: 704-342-3704
Columbia, SC Columbia, SC 1623 Lake Murray Blvd.
Columbia, SC 29212
Phone: 803-772-8282
Fax: 803-772-0087
Cincinnati/Dayton, OH Cincinnati/Dayton, OH 8241 Cornell Road
Suite 210
Cincinnati, OH 45249
Phone: 513-561-2305
Fax: 513-561-2881
Detroit, MI Detroit, MI 400 W. Maple Road
Suite 100
Birmingham, MI 48009
Phone: 248-540-0040
Fax: 248-540-8239
Indianapolis, IN Indianapolis, IN 4981 North Franklin Road
Indianapolis, IN 46226
Phone: 317-546-4720
Fax: 317-546-1407
Louisville, KY Louisville, KY 13000 Equity Place
Suite 105
Louisville, KY 40223-3976
Phone: 502-452-1543
Fax: 502-451-3657
Houston, TX Houston, TX 9225 Katy Freeway
Suite 206
Houston, TX 77024
Phone: 713-973-0212
Fax: 713-973-2028
San Antonio, TX San Antonio, TX 909 NE Loop 410
Suite 632
San Antonio, TX 78216
Phone: 210-446-4444
Caribbean | Puerto Rico Caribbean | Puerto Rico Vig Tower 1225 Ave Ponce De Leon
Suite MZ-4
San Juan, PR 00907-3907
Phone: 844-952-7304
New Orleans, LA New Orleans, LA
New Orleans, LA 70130
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Little Rock, AR Little Rock, AR
Little Rock, AR 72223
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869
Grand Rapids, MI Grand Rapids, MI 1009 44th Street, SW
Suite 107
Grand Rapids, MI 49509
Phone: 616-261-5000
Fax: 616-261-5045
Lubbock, TX Lubbock, TX 6309 Indiana Avenue
Suite A
Lubbock, TX 79413
Phone: 806-368-8063
Northwest Arkansas Northwest Arkansas
Fayetteville, AR 72701
Phone: 212-575-2935
Fax: 646-424-1869