Just Released: IRR's Mid-Year 2023 Viewpoint Local Market Reports Aug 22, 2023

Integra Realty Resources Unveils In-Depth Commercial Real Estate Mid-Year Report, Unpacking Key Market Trends
National Summary and 240 Local Reports Provide Deep Dive into Commercial Real Estate Values and Trends Across Office, Industrial, Retail, and Multifamily Sectors

DENVER, CO — (August 22, 2023) — Integra Realty Resources (IRR), one of North America’s largest independent commercial real estate valuation and consulting firms, has unveiled its highly anticipated Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Report. This in-depth update complements IRR's flagship Viewpoint annual report issued in January.

The mid-year release includes 240 detailed local reports covering 60 U.S. markets across four property types: office, multifamily, retail, and industrial. In addition to the individual market reports, IRR has also rolled out a summary document featuring updated property summaries, market cycle charts, and comparison charts of market rents and vacancy rates for each property sector.

“Despite prevailing uncertainties and shifting trends across the commercial real estate sector, we see many reasons to remain optimistic,” said Anthony M. Graziano, MAI, CRE, CEO of Integra Realty Resources. “Our extensive mid-year report illustrates how real estate players continue to adapt to changing dynamics in the post-pandemic world. From resilience in the face of rising vacancies and operating costs, to cap stack resets for debt and equity, our latest report provides crucial insights into the factors molding our outlook on the ever-changing commercial real estate markets.”

The reports are available for complimentary download to registered users. The summary report can be accessed at www.irr.com/research. Local market reports can be found on each local office's landing page in the research section, such as www.irr.com/Philadelphia.

Key insights from IRR's mid-year report include:

Office:

• The persistence of remote and hybrid work models has led to increasing office vacancies, with regions like Cincinnati and Charleston standing resilient.
• Tech and biotech sectors are behind stability in specific areas, while broader economic challenges, including inflation, cloud the outlook.
• The ability to innovate and adapt spaces to integrate work-from-home (WFH) trends is key to success in the current office market.
• Changes to regional investment metrics from Q2 ’22 to Q2 ’23:
  • Cap Rates: CBD Class B properties in the South saw the most significant cap rate increase to 8.08% (+71 bps). Nationally, CBD class B properties also led with a cap rate increase to 8.08%, while suburban Class B properties had the smallest increase to 8.19% (+43 bps).
  • Market Rents: Class A properties in the South experienced the top regional market rent increase to $28.11 psf, while nationally, class A rents rose to $32.55 psf.
  • Vacancy Rates: Class A properties in the West saw the highest regional vacancy rate jump to 18.42% (+160 bps), while nationally, class A rates had the highest increase to 18.59% (+104 bps).
• Market Cycles: Since Q4'22, national office markets shifted notably towards the recession phase, with the expansion phase vanishing in the West by Q2'23.

Multifamily:

• The multi-family safe-harbor for institutional investors had a very slow start in 2023, with investment volumes off 50%+ in most markets, planned projects stalling or cancelling, an investor market slammed with a bid-ask pricing gap for the first time in over a decade, and real operating challenges managing increased expenses and slowing rent growth.
• The national multifamily market shows a mix of growth in key cities and rising vacancies due to varied regional dynamics.
• Eastern and Southern regions display contrasting performances with robust growth in Northern New Jersey, Boston, and Florida, while areas like Birmingham and Raleigh experience a slowdown.
• Despite challenges in the West and Central regions, strong demand persists, highlighted by a boom in Louisville and steady demand against regulatory constraints in the West.
• Changes to regional investment metrics from Q2 ’22 to Q2 ’23:
  • Cap Rates: Urban properties in the South led with the highest cap rate increase nationally +54 bps to 5.10%, while suburban properties in the West saw the least cap rate expansion, +32 bps to 4.82%.
  • Market Rents: Class A properties saw the highest regional market rent increase in the Central region at 5.64% and led nationally with a 4.45% rise, while class B properties experienced more modest growth, with the lowest regional increase in the South at 1.97% and a national increase of 3.08%
  • Vacancy Rates: Class B properties in the East exhibited the most significant vacancy rate fluctuations, with a national increase topping out at 107 bps to 4.29%.
• Market Cycles: From Q4'22 to Q2'23, the national multifamily market, including the East, South, and West regions, witnessed a marked transition from expansion (72.6% to 38.7%) to hypersupply (12.9% to 48.4%) since Q4'22 indicating a probable cool-down on pricing and velocity in the coming 6-12 months.

Retail:

• The retail real estate sector is rebounding strongly from COVID-19, buoyed by continued discretionary consumer spending. Notably, consumer debt sky-rocketed in the first half of 2023 which should be a cautionary marker as we head into continued economic uncertainty. The consumer “balance sheet lift” post-covid has eroded, and retailers will need to monitor consumer sentiment and spending patterns. Investors will be rewarded by understanding their tenant mix, tenant market position, and local demand dynamics as consumer spending shifts into lower gear.
• The West and East regions are leading in mixed-use developments, reflecting an innovative approach to retail spaces in land constrained markets.
• The Central and South regions, despite facing vacancies, are capitalizing on opportunities in adaptive reuse and redevelopment, highlighting a strategic focus on repurposing existing spaces.
• Changes to regional investment metrics from Q2 ’22 to Q2 ’23:
  • Cap Rates: Community Retail properties experienced the most pronounced changes in cap rates, with the South region leading the way, rising to 7.22%, and a notable national increase of 25 basis points to 7.15%. In contrast, Neighborhood Retail cap rates exhibited a more subdued expansion, both regionally in the East & West with an increase of 7 basis points, and nationally, increasing only 20 basis points to 7.17%.
  • Market Rents: Market rents varied with neighborhood retail properties in the West leading regionally with a 1.72% increase to $26.65 psf, while nationally rents rose by 1.06% to $19.69 psf; community retail properties saw more modest gains both regionally and nationally.
  • Vacancy Rates: Vacancy rates for neighborhood retail properties in the Central region rose by 28 bps to 12.57%, while community retail in the West dropped by 24 bps to 7.81%; nationally, slight variations were observed in both categories.
• Market Cycles: From Q4'22 to Q2'23, national retail cycles shifted with expansion declining to 27.4% of markets reporting and recovery markets comprising 37.1%; notable regional changes include a tripling of the number of markets in the East categorized as recovery, and the decline to 17.7% of the reporting markets in the South that are in expansion.

Industrial:

• The industrial real estate sector nationally continues to thrive evidenced by increased demand for storage, distribution, and logistics facilities, with regions like the Central and South particularly benefiting from retail and infrastructure growth.
• The Eastern and Western markets exhibit steady and varied growth respectively, influenced by economic factors and city-specific expansions, such as in Denver and Seattle.
• Despite economic challenges, the industrial sector's outlook remains positive, supported by persistent demand dynamics including on-shoring trends, changes to logistics capacity and supply dynamics including lack of industrial land and aging industrial inventory in many markets. These positive fundamentals aside, industrial construction appears to be slowing, particularly on speculative development due to increasing capital market and land costs.
• Changes to regional investment metrics from Q2 ’22 to Q2 ’23:
  • Cap Rates: Between Q2’22 & Q2’23, industrial cap rates varied: flex industrial properties in the East had the highest regional increase (+77 bps to 6.83%), whereas nationally, the increase ranged between +36 bps to 6.75% for flex industrial to +39 bps for general industrial properties.
  • Market Rents: Wide variations seen, with flex industrial in the East surging by +19.64% to $12.53 psf, while nationally, increases spanned from +13.67% for flex industrial to +16.46% for general Industrial properties.
  • Vacancy Rates: Rates varied, with the Central region seeing the highest increase (+40 bps to 5.66%), while nationally, rates generally decreased, with flex industrial in the East dropping notably by -217 bps to 6.83%.
• Market Cycles: From Q4'22 to Q2'23, there was a significant shift in the Industrial market: 64.5% of national industrial markets tracked by Integra moved from expansion to hypersupply, with regional trends echoing this transition. These shifts in sentiment indicate early signs of value normalization by the market.

IRR's mid-year report serves as a launching point for stakeholders seeking to inform their decision-making processes and strategic efforts on a macro and regional market basis. To download IRR’s mid-year commercial real estate reports, visit www.IRR.com/research.